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6th Demographic conference of Young Demographers - Abstracts and presentations

2015-02-13

Abuladze Liili

Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallin University

Personal Networks and Everyday Activity Limitations among Ageing Native and Foreign-Origin Populations in Estonia

The main purpose of this article is to disentangle the role of network variations in health differentials between foreign-origin and native older Estonians in the framework of the Second Demographic Transition. Large migrant in-flows during the Soviet era and then a sudden stop of these inflows in the 1990s have contributed to the rapid ageing process in Estonia. Previous research has indicated that Estonian native and foreign-origin population have had different demographic development levels. It is assumed that also social networks act differently in case of health problems for such different groups. This research makes use of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), fourth wave carried out in Estonia in 2010-2011. The total sample in the analysis included 4621 individuals aged 50 and older of whom 1219 were foreign-origin and 3402 native. In order to avoid any biases in network analysis, only one household member was included in the analysis (not both spouses). Multinomial logistic regression models were run with the level of severity of everyday activity limitations as the main dependent variable of interest. Age, sex, educational level, employment status, partnership status, geographical proximity of network members, having any long-term illnesses and receiving any personal or practical help from someone were included as control variables. Personal networks were tapped by looking at the size of networks, composition of networks, contact frequency with network members and satisafaction with networks. First, regression models for total population were run and then models with interaction terms between the network characteristics and population origin variables were run. Results indicate that for total Estonian population, the severely limited people have most vulnerable network characteristics – these are often non-existent, without any family members, without a spouse, without friends and with low satisfaction levels with their networks. Foreign-origin population indicated 1,5 times higher likelihood of being severely as well as less severely limited than the natives, confirming previous findings of higher disability risks for the foreign-origin population in Estonia. There occur some network resource differentials by origin, but it does not seem to stem from different demographic development and different age structures of the two groups. Rather the differences in resources come from migrants having a ‘disruptive’ migration experience which has coupled or perhaps resulted in low expectations regarding the existence of close people in their old age, at least in the case of less severe limitations. In case of severely limited migrants they are not happy with their network outcomes similarly to severely limited natives. However, the reason why severely limited migrants lack children and spouse even though these ties are related to the resident country rather than their origin country, should be explored further.

key words: personal networks, everyday activity limitations, ageing, native population, foreign-origin population, Second Demographic Transition, health differentials, Estonia

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Čapková Klára

European Doctoral School of Demography

Family formation processes at the time of crisis: The special case of cohabiting couples

Did the marital and fertility patterns of cohabiting couples change after the economic crisis broke out? This paper aims to examine the effect of the last economic crisis on the timing and order of family formation processes among young cohabitors. Using the first five waves of the Panel Analysis for Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (PAIRFAM), we focus on the changes in timing and order of first birth and marriage entry among cohabiting couples in former West and East Germany. The availability of both retrospective and prospective data from a current panel study allows us to compare the trajectories of couples formed before 2007 to couples formed at the time of the economic recession. Negative changes in economy unequally affect future prospects and chances of individuals of different age, different education, socio-economic and family status. Since the characteristics and family-related decisions of both cohabiting partners shape the trajectory of the union, couple-level perspective is adopted to adequately assess the implications of the sudden change of circumstances. The current study employs the discrete-time event-history analysis approach. It provides a unique view of the changing dynamics of cohabiting unions and young families in the time of uncertainty.

key words: economic crisis, marriage entry and childbearing, cohabitation

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Chevalier Paolo - PRIZE FOR THE BEST PRESENTATION WITH SOCIAL CONTEXT

European Doctoral School of Demography

Studying Commuting Social Inequalities: Barcelona’s Case

In 1968, Kain coined the term of ‘Spatial Mismatch’ to express how the downtown urban segregation of black communities in US metropolises impacted their high unemployment rates. Nowadays, in European Cities such as Barcelona, a reversed flow seems to have appeared: the progressive exclusion of the poor out of the city. As a possible consequence, the following hypothesis was formulated: the poorest economic categories are the ones who spend most time to go to work. Therefore, the first step of this study, using the national census of population of 2001, consisted in clustering neighbourhoods of the main city and its suburbs depending on their socioeconomic category. Next, different indicators such as unemployment rates or time of commuting were tested in order to state whether a spatial mismatch occurs in this metropolitan area. Although some results appeared to be the consequences of a chosen way of life, other findings allowed us to draw a map portraying the negatively disconnected districts.

key words: Spatial Mismatch, Commuting, Social Inequalities, Urban Segregation

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Kašpar Dan, Hulíková Tesárková Klára, Zimmermann Pavel

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague,
Department of Statistics and Probability, University of Economics, Prague

Why and how to study convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality?

This paper is based on the results of my diploma thesis (Kašpar, 2014) and an article that I participated (Hulíková Tesárková et al., 2015). It is focused on convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality. Two questions are solved: (1) Why should we focus on these tendencies (theoretical background)? (2) How can we measure these tendencies (analytical part)?First, reasons why it is important to study convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality will be summarize. Among others, relationship between these tendencies and most important demographic theoretical concepts will be mentioned. Secondly, possible ways to analyze convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality will be shown. Close attention will be paid to method based on extrapolation of past mortality trend to the future. This approach was applied in our article to quantification and visualization of convergence tendencies of mortality in the Czech Republic and other developed European countries (Hulíková Tesárková et al., 2015).

key words: convergence, divergence, mortality, life expectancy, European countries

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Kuprová Barbora, Hulíková Tesárková Klára, Fialová Ludmila

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague

Case study on the population born at the 18th century in Jablonec (Czech lands) – application of the survival analysis
of individual data

Historical data of population of the Czech lands have been studied only through the traditional methods of historical demography (e. g. family reconstitution method) so far. However, these data offer many possibilities of application of other methods, which are commonly used in demographic analysis of contemporary data, for example the survival analysis. Aim of the paper is to show the application of survival analysis on the reproductive behavior of people born at the 18th century. The studied data came from individual records from parish registers from Jablonec, one of the industrial township in the northern part of the Czech lands. The studied time period was special because of the economic and social changes. The durations from birth/marriage to marriage/birth of first child/death are studied.

key words: survival analysis, individual data, parish registers, 18th century

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Kurkin Roman

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague

Cohort Fertility in the results of the 2011 Population and Housing Census in the Czech Republic

This presentation is based on data from the last Population and Housing Census, which took place in the Czech Republic in 2011. Unique data about cohort fertility are available again after ten years. This reliable and detailed data in combination with other characteristics aren’t available from any other source. The presentation deals mainly with socio-demographic and regional differences in this indicator. Further it attempts to estimate the influence of some determinants on the level of cohort fertility. Methodological issues are also discussed.

key words: cohort fertility, census, determinants of fertility, regional differences in fertility

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Laušmanová Barbora

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague

Analysis of behaviour of pension company clients

Presented analysis focuses on the structure and clients’ behaviour of pension company in the period before the transformation of the pension system and also after – in conjunction with newly formed environment. Primarily demographic methods were used to demonstrate changes in the structure of insurance portfolio caused by demographic development in the Czech Republic and also differences between clients of new pension products. Detailed survival analysis showed that duration of saving is influenced not only by sex but also by age or the amount of savings. The risk of premature termination of saving (constructed by Cox proportional hazard model) is beside already mentioned characteristics influenced also by place of living and type of pension plan. The dynamics of leavings from pension company was in certain aspects seasonal yet overall increasing. Prediction model of investment strategy confirms that the age of clients is more influential than sex in choosing the rate of risk funds. The results clearly demonstrate wide possibilities of use of demographic methods in business sphere and their benefits not only for long-termed evaluating of opportunities or threats, but also for revealing factors influencing clients’ behaviour.

key words: pension company, insurance portfolio, investment strategy, saving time, survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard model

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Lenart Adam, Sopina Elizaveta, Zarulli Virginia

Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark

Comparing the performance of health systems in providing life expectancy

The health systems of lower and higher level of life expectancy countries should not be compared with each other. Data envelopment analysis, a tool seldom used in demography or public health provides an objective framework for such a comparison. Data on OECD member nations suggest that irrespectively of which life expectancy group a country belongs to, higher expenditure, higher level of education, less tobacco consumption and higher level of preventive and curative care lead to increases in life expectancy. Moreover, benchmarking the performance of a country’s health system can help policymakers in setting achievable goals.

 

Lenart Adam, Zarulli Virginia, Oeppen James and others

Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark

Problems with disregarding the compositional nature of some demographic data

Compositional data analysis concentrates on the proper analysis of data with a constant sum. Demography is teeming with such data, for example, the age structure of the population or relatedly, dependency ratios. Analyses such as the ones focusing on number of hours spent on  different activities in time use surveys or factors of gross domestic product measured in percentages might yield biased results if the constraints placed by this type of data is disregarded.

 

Pachlová Tereza

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague

A contribution of assisted reproduction technologies to natality trends in the Czech Republic

A growing proportion of population is continuously concerned about problems of infertility. This aspect of human reproduction has acquired a new dimension in relation to postponement of childbearing in developed countries. With a start 30 years ago, it has been possible to help infertile couples to have their own children due to methods of assisted reproduction technologies. The number of in vitro fertilization treatments continues to rise as does the proportion of births conceived through assisted reproduction in the Czech Republic and in other developed countries. For that reason, the topic of assisted reproduction has also become an object of interest to demographers. It can be reasonably assumed that the effect of assisted reproduction on trends in natality and demographics trends in general will increase in the future. In the proposed presentation, recent trends in the use of assisted reproduction technologies in the Czech Republic will be introduced, and their significance for natality trends will be evaluated. Attention will be focused especially on an analysis of the number of births conceived through assisted reproduction by the age of mother and also on the quantification of the offset of the negative effect of delayed childbearing on aggregate fertility rates. Several projection variants of future request for assisted reproduction technologies will also be outlined.

key words: assisted reproduction technologies, natality, fertility, infertility, the Czech Republic

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Petrová Kafková Marcela

Office for Population Studies, Masaryk University, Brno

When begin the real old age?: transition into a fourth age in an active ageing society

The ageing of the population is not just the growth of the share of the older adult population, but above all the very rapid growth in the ratio of the oldest age groups. We usually think of old age as 60 and older, which means a time span of 40 years if you live to be a hundred (and in 2013 there were 731 inhabitants 100+ years of age in the Czech Republic). While we would probably never think of a newborn baby and a person 40 years old as part of the same social group, in the case of older adults this happens quite often. However, because of the enormous diversification of this age-defined group, as well as the expected growth in the number and proportional size of the oldest age cohorts of the population in the near future, homogenization of older adults is in the long term untenable. The fourth age basically embodies all of the fears of ageing; it brings frailty, helplessness, and loss of autonomy. For an active individual in the third age, conducting many social roles e.g. active citizen, worker, career, people in the fourth age, loosing these roles, are the “the others”. The greatest fear and concern for older adults is the loss of independence, personal autonomy and loss of socially regarded roles. And loss of autonomy and loss of mental vigor along with physical condition and age are among the main factors that lead people in the Czech Republic to see a person as old. However from sociological point of view the definition of fourth age is unclear. Usually the lower limit of old age is settle although as emergence from written above the limit of old old is crucial too. There are many ways of defining the fourth age based on various principles. The basics use chronological age, this line is based on the French tradition, and corresponds to the medicinal discourse, where it is possible among the majority of the population to determine a specific phenomenology of ageing since the age 75. From a demographic point of view there are two differing principles to define the boundary between third and fourth age. The first is based on the population structure, the second on the individual perspective. From the first perspective, the line between the third age and the fourth age is drawn at the moment when 50 % of the age category is still alive. Setting the boundary in the second, individual case is based not on projected life span of survival, but on maximum life expectancy. From this perspective, however, the transition into the fourth age varies between 60–90 years old. The cultural one characterized the fourth age not by chronological age, but as the period of final infirmity, decline, and death. As a reverse to the third age. Other authors define fourth age as a social construct, a set of assumptions about the dependence and indignity of true old age. The fourth age thus resembles a “black hole”, being represented by the loss of agency and control. In this conception the fourth age is not even an inevitable stage of life, nor the unsuccessful opposite of successful ageing. These authors also doubt the possibility of understanding it through individual experience; the main role instead, they argue, is played by social structures, mainly the outlines of social policy. Also the question is when the fourth age, understood as “real” old age, begin? In the other words, when a person lost enough of his/her autonomy, agency to be labeled as fourth ager? In my presentation I will discussed these various definitions and perception of fourth age and will demonstrate the importance of this topic for understanding of contemporary demographic changes. I will follow the occurrence of various health limitations in the context of chronological age, and people’s perceptions of themselves in the context of the onset of these health limitations. Using secondary analysis of data from SHARE 2010 (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe). I focus on possible variance in relation to gender, and degree of social, economic, and cultural capital; that is, whether the “third” to “fourth” age transition varies depending on these characteristics.

key words: ageing; population ageing; old-old; fourth age; the Czech Republic

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Podolská Kateřina

Department of Demography, Charles University in Prague

The effect of changes in solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric parameters on mortality from diseases of the nervous system

The aim of this conference paper is a deeper analysis of the influence of extraterrestrial enviromental phenomena which are expected to have an impact on diseases of the nervous systém. There are investigated 6 of individual causes of death of group VI. according to ICD-10. Analysis is performed for the period of solar cycle No. 23 and 24 (years 1994-2012) in the Czech Republic. The correlation between the intensity of mortality from diseases Parkinson disease, Secondary parkinsonism, Alzheimer disease, Multiple sclerosis, Epilepsy and Cerebral palsy and the solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters is examined. The computation is implemented in the SAS environment. Furthermore, stochastic method of graphical models of conditional dependences is used.

key words: mortality, causes of death, diseases of the nervous system, solar and geomagnetic indices

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Podolská Markéta

Department of Germanic Studies, Charles University in Prague

Female Roles in Medieval Scandinavia

The roles of women in the medieval Scandinavian society will be analysed from two principal points of view: those of documents (letters from Diplomatarium norvegicum) and of the official fiction, the chivalric sagas. We will, therefore, focus on the real social roles as well as on the literary roles of women in the contemporary courtly epics. The analysed correspondence has been chosen from the period of queen Eufemia's life (1280-1320), who was the second most famous Norwegian ruler to order courtly epics to be translated into Old Norse. Therefore, we will simultaneously focus on literary texts: courtly epic that was translated in the 13th and 14th centuries. Since Norway was European cultural periphery at the beginning of the 13th century, the first translations, commissioned by Hákon Hákonarson, were meant to affect the extra-literary attitudes and opinions of the aristocratic target audience. Thus, possible influence on everyday life should be taken into account. Among other questions, we will ask whether the texts express some strong attitudes towards women and we will also examine the proverbial "Norse gender equality".

key words: chivalric sagas, medieval Scandinavia, Old Norse, women

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Rabbi Ahbab Mohammad Fazle

European Doctoral School of Demography

Impact of Maternal Mortality on Reproductive-Aged Life Expectancy: Evidence from a Developing Country

Notable reduction in maternal mortality was observed in many countries of the world in the last century, which is often recognized in the framework of the demographic and epidemiologic transitions. Women in every country gained a longer life expectancy at birth than men in the last decade, which is the first time in recorded human history. However, the contribution of maternal mortality to life expectancy estimates, particularly during reproductive-ages, remains to be studied for most developing countries. Bangladesh showed notable success in MDG-5; the maternal mortality rate (MMR) of Bangladesh is 240 deaths per 100000 live births in 2010. Due to demographic transition female life expectancies rise notably and it higher than man since the last two decades. This study evaluates the impact of maternal mortality reduction on shift in women's life expectancy during the reproductive period for Bangladesh (ages 15 to 49) using the data of Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). The results indicate a strong linear relation between reproductive-aged life expectancy (RALE) and female life expectancies with a gain of two years in RALE in the last 40 years. Also, for the recent era, absent of maternal mortality may increase reproductive life span 0.6 year in Bangladesh. Promoting female education, access to skilled birth attendants and family planning care will increase RALE in future for Bangladesh.

key words: Maternal Mortality; Life Expectancy; Reproductive Life Span; Developing Countries

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Santi Flavia

European Doctoral School of Demography

Individual and contextual determinants of caesarean section. A multilevel analysis of the Lazio regional data

Caesarean section (CS) rates around the world have been increasing sharply and in Italy have reached 38% of all births (2010), whereas WHO suggests that CS rates should not exceed 15%. This study aimed to investigate trends in elective CS rates in the Lazio region taking into account individual factors as well as potential contextual effects using multilevel analysis. Furthermore, we sought to test the explanatory power of Robson’s Ten Group Classification System, a clinically relevant classification of CS rates. Data for this study were drawn from the Agency of Public Health of Lazio Informative System on Births. The study population included all women giving birth between 1st January 2002 and 31st December 2010. From 2002 to 2010 the CS rate increased from 39.0 to 42.9 per 100 births. While significant individual determinants of elective CS were the same for both public and private health care providers, we found relevant rising dissimilarities in the frequency of elective CS as an evidence of contextual effect (in 2002 ρ=0.119, 95% CI 0.081-0.172; in 2006 ρ=0.165, 95% CI 0.114-0.232; in 2010 ρ=0.182, 95% CI 0.127-0.253). However, these differences could not be totally explained by the administrative status of health care providers. Future efforts to reduce the overall CS rate should be therefore addressed in improving staff training on the new guidelines.

key words: Caesarean section, Robson classification, multilevel analysis, health care providers

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Štípková Martina

Department of Sociology, University of West Bohemia in Pilsen

Does cohort size influence health? Exploration of the effect in the Czech Republic

Though cohort size effects have been widely studied, little is known about their impact on health. There are contradictory theoretical expectations of how cohort size could influence health in various social contexts. Understanding the consequences of cohort size is especially important in countries with uneven age structures, such as many post-socialist countries. The proposed paper explores the relationship between cohort size and three indicators of health: infant mortality, self-rated health, and mortality at age 60, in the Czech Republic. Aggregate and survey data are used to describe the association between cohort size and health outcomes among cohorts born between 1900 and 2013. Preliminary results show that cohort size influences health in an ambiguous way. While the association is negative at infant age, it turns to be positive among the elderly. Several explanations of these findings are offered.

key words: Age structure, Cohort size, Crowding, Infant mortality, Mortality, Self-rated health

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